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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 00:25:00 -
[1]
With the continuation of multiple lottery winners with low RPs being now a fixed trait, dominating the majority of all BPs given out; and with it now becomming clear that multiple individuals are being "extraordinarily lucky" not just once, but twice, sometimes with the same agent for the same BP...
isnt it about time that CCP actually came out and made a clear and open declaration about the spread of BPs amongst the R&D community?
There is now a palpable stench surrounding the entire "Lottery", permeating substantial sections of the player base who, day by day, continue to lose faith in this supposedly fair and flawless system.
If there is nothing wrong with the system, and this is simply a statistical glitch or accident of annecdotal evidence, then CCP should takes the steps now to asuage doubts and concerns that are endemic now in the player population.
Even if its a pat on the head and a "Now now boy everything is fine"... but even better if CCP actually take time to double check their own figures and make trebily sure there is no*****-up in the system.
Everybody can believe in somebody with a tiny few RPs getting mnumentally lucky once... when they start getting monumentally lucky twice..and so do other "Lucky people" its less and less believeable all the time.
We want some reassurance... not an inquest, not a trial, not a hanging party.. just some plain good customer relations and community management.
Is the lottery working properly?
Why does it seem that so many BPs are going to people with only a relatively low number of RPs?
In plain english what was the real nature of the "bug" recently noted as being fixed in the patchlog.
- - - - - -
NB: Thats one of my questions for this Wednesdays CSM.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 01:15:00 -
[2]
 Quote:
You know, if you had been one of the 'lucky' low RP winners would you even bother posting Morkt?
We HAVE been one of the lucky low RP winners... same guy, twice.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 14:42:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 14:48:43
Thanks Papa.
The logging/data checking is what we really need to assuage any fears.
This issue of repeat wins for low-RP researcher is the most difficult issue - given your data here and on IRC it seems evenless likely they should get repeat wins.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 15:02:00 -
[4]
PapaSmurf is looking into a specific instance right now Temujin.
He's good like that 
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 15:55:00 -
[5]
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Papa Smurf, you missed the point.
It is not that Joe Bagadonuts won and I didn't.
It's that Joe Bagadonuts won TWICE IN A ROW, and so did his cousin BareLee Jellyfilled, and his sister-in-law Tina Cookies....
It's a highly improbable scenario.
That's what he is looking into.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 19:24:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 19:42:40
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I hope you all look at yourselves and wish you never posted here. I would not doubt more delete thier posts!!!!
When will those "elite" players realize that its a game!!!!
As a result of this, and IRC conversations, PapaSmurf is investigating certain aspects, specifically the incidents of "double wins".
Get some facts before trying to preach. 
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The more RP you have does not mean you are more likely to get a BPo.
Actually that is exactly what it does mean. The more RPs you have the higher the chance of you getting a BPO.
I really think you ought to go away and consider your own comments before making a further ass of yourself.
Highest R&D field = 5396681 points
Highest individual RP = 41232
You should be able to apply simple math to work out the differences between that chance he will win and a guy with 1RP - it isn't rocket science afterall.
What you might not be able to work out, as you have shown no willingness to read the posts in this thread that discuss it, is that the same "1 point guy" winning twice in a row isn't just highly unlikely but unbelieveably, stupidly, no-way-jose, high.
And PS is agreeable enough on that point to specifically investigate it.
I think the likelyhood of any of US wanting to delete our posts given the above, is next to zero. You, on the other hand, have free choice to do so at your leisure...and far more reason.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 20:03:00 -
[7]
Do you ever, actually, read what people post.. or do you just look at it and chose to see just the bits you want to?
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 20:23:00 -
[8]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 20:25:29
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Complaining does not get you a BP its those that work the system.
If your npc Corp has not given out the latest batch of BPo do you think its likely you will get a BPo in that corp. Those that are playing for the long haul will get thier rewards if they soo please. I dont know if I can get you to understand its not about a system distribution but a NPC corp distribution.
Papa stated that its works as planned. Making justification on why it does not, does not mean your right.
Look, Im trying to be nice about this - but i will be blunt. You are clueless and you don't even have the courtesy to read what people are writing.
I have six tech 2 BPs - three times more than yours and all a damn sight more useful. Im not complaigning you nit, Im trying to see if something is broken.
Papa, on IRC is investigating whether certian aspects are working properly. That comversation and that information comes from PapaSmurf following this thread and his post herein.
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Is 0.0076 chance you win.
Well done - now what is it for a person with 1 RP?
You stated CLEARLY that more RPs does not mean a higher chance to win. You are wrong. FACT.
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If your npc Corp has not given out the latest batch of BPo do you think its likely you will get a BPo in that corp.
You are now claiming your divine choice of NPC Corp is why you have the almightily huge number of 2 BPs. Well, hate to break it to you but the truth of that is already in the public domain.
Im not even going to bother telling you because you don't listen.
Let me repeat this one more time: PapSmurf is looking into the issue of repeat-winners in close succession within the same agent.
Why?
I don't know... Harisdrop - you tell me why he is doing that eh?
Let me give you a clue though - it has lots to do with people asking questions to ensure a system is working as intended, and nothing to do with other people running about spweing rubbish about things they don't have a clue about.
WOrk it out for yourself.. but please stop embarassing yourself with all these claims of yours.
Its really not helpful, its not what we are discussing and you weren't even party to most of it.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 22:27:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 16/03/2004 22:33:10
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I don't know about you, but it may be higher, but I wouldn't call it significantly higher...even compared to someone with just the bare minimum skills who's idling the agent his/her chances of winning aren't exactly significantly different - it's all within a percentage point.
My math isnt exactly crash hot but didnt they double their chances.. and with RPM even more so... and compared to someone with 35 RPs its a far far higher chance.
Edit - btw the R&D missions are actually 1.3/day apparently, so you can do better than double your points.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.16 23:39:00 -
[10]
The point is it does generate a better chance.
Harisdrop stated there was no better chance.
He was wrong.
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Players can chose to increase their chances or not. What people want to know is if the system is working as intended. Whether or not it is a good system remains, now, largely irrelevant as we are stuck with it.
As pointed out to both IZON and Harisdrop I'm hardly whinging at the outcome; having a fistful of Tech2 myself.
I remain exasberated by people who insist on trying to sow divisiveness or expose imaginary alterior motives behind any questioning. Its childish.
41,000 RPs set against 1 RP is a big difference in chances. If the 1 RP guy wins twice in a row I wonder how and why. It doesn't require me to ask why the 41k guy hasn't won anything.
Is this so difficult to comprehend?
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.17 01:26:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 01:29:16
Quote:
Edited by: IZON on 17/03/2004 00:58:17
We shouldn't really be comparing it to a lottery if we can't accept that Joe Bloggs can win it twice with two tickets in two weeks, and Joe Smith never wins after a hundreds of tickets in two years (this happens in RL).
As pointed out by Papa Smurf, the Big Ant is offset by the mass of Smaller Ants (the Smaller Ants collectively forming the bigger ant).
As stated by papasmurf on IRC, concerning the double wins "I'll investigate that seperately."
I find it odd he isn't certain and will check whilst you are absolute in your total belief. Then again, given your first reply to this thread, it doesn't really surprise me.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.17 01:42:00 -
[12]
From Papas input on IRC today it became clear that the lottery is incredibly simple:
They lump together every single RP for a given skill... asign a BP to it (BP must require that skill) and draw out a winning ticket.
Thats it.
NPC Agent, NPC Corp, knowledge of skills, level of agents etc aren't a factor, nor is the backstory designation for BPs, thus you don't need to be with a LaiDai R&D agent to get the "LaiDai" type ships, its not relevant.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.17 12:33:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 12:50:51
You know what you should do IZON? Go read your first post in this thread, then go read the forum-rules definition of trolling.
Apply your own latest rant to it, pour yourself some milk, then go cry into it.
Your only contribution to this thread, from start to finish, has been deliberate trolling.
Opps - forgot - no it wasn't only trolling: you gave hundreds of people a chuckle in how badly you were caught out whilst trolling.. musn't forget that. 
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.17 17:08:00 -
[14]
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The key is that its distributed by NPC corp and its agents. If few are doing the npc corp then you have a better chance with that agent, unless Papa says otherwise. I remeber him saying something to this effect when the Lottery started.
For crying out loud - read what people post.
PapaSMurf quite clearly stated, and the information quite clearly repeated in this thread: the RP pool is for the SKILL.. it has nothing to do with the agent or NPC corp at all.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.17 18:29:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Morkt Drak on 17/03/2004 18:51:24
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Morkt:
1) it was stated its by field. I give you that but have you noticed some corps have better agents in certain fields.
Field IS Skill Hari.
E.g. Field= Caldari Staship, skill required = Caldari Starship Engineering. Makes not odds if your agent is with Bob the Builder or LaiDai... they just total up the RPs and pull out a winner. There is no breakdown by Agent or NPC Corp as you claimed.
Thats why PapaSmurf gave the figures quoted above: Total RPs and highest player RPs in that field.
I do not wish to pick fault with you over this, but your earlier claims were totally contrary to this. There's no point in proliferating such when it appears to be incorrect.
At the end of the day though only CCP have the information needed to verify any of this. We're not asking to change the system, we're not asking for all that info. We're simply asking them to double and triple check some instances of multiple winners that "feel" wrong and statistically look wrong.
Its not a witch hunt, its a pretty simple question and one which PapaSmurf IS looking into. Why? Because he thinks it's a bit odd also, not impossible, just "maybe" odd. Why so much bruhaha is caused by asking him to do that is a mystery.
- - -
Some people believe that the only way you can support a MOG is to praise it at every step, never question the devs and always believing they are inviolate and incapable of error. Others realise the stupidity of the former viewpoint.
Having benefitted from the current system, and likely to benefit further given no changes, how and why my motives appear to be questioned and chastised at every step is beyond me. Luckily I don't give a toss.
I want to know the system is working correctly, I believe implicitly in the right to question that it is working properly; anybody with issues over that belief - tough.
People like IZON who join these discussion with nothing but intent to troll from their first post onwards just make the effort more worthwhile...and life on IRC more fun.
It is, afterall, good to laugh.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.23 20:00:00 -
[16]
Quote:
12 days ago, my agent rewarded me with a Claw Interceptor BP. I had ~16k RP at that time. Today I got a second Claw BP from the same agent (4.6k RP).
Colossal luck ?
Apparently neither yourself not the others who have achieved this singular feet are in anyway at al "Lucky" - its just inevitable given the statistics of the lottery (apparently).
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.23 21:40:00 -
[17]
Papa said he would look into it - so i assume that's what he's doing atm.
I doubt we will hear if there has been a problem though so we may never know if a fix was made or even a problem found.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.24 19:25:00 -
[18]
Quote:
Just a question to my solution. I wonder how many get thier second tech II bp, third tech II bp from the same agent and npc corp?
erm.. 'lots' did who did... not hard to work out why either.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 18:36:00 -
[19]
Quote:
What I want some on this topic to understand is, If the programmer believes his program is doing the right thing and can show its doing the right thing even if others question its results cause those results are not what they want, the programmer is right. Remeber if you dont have the data to check against the programmers data you loose.
We know all that hari - we know it and understand it. Its not the point. You keep arguing something nobody really cares about and has been dealt with.
We "know" it isnt working right from anecdotal evidence alone. We know it isnt working right as nobody is supposed to keep stopping and restarting R&D to get new BPs. We know it isnt working right because multiple people have gotten repeat uber-rare frigate BPOs from teh same agent twice within very short epriods of time..
and that isnt supposed to happen.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:23:00 -
[20]
And.....another person has just goten their second Elite Frigate BPO now.. bringing the total (that i know of) to four.
Claw BPO - second time around, under two weeks between the two BPOs, same agent.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 21:26:00 -
[21]
Make that five people - got a double Taranis winner reported also now 
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.25 23:08:00 -
[22]
Quote:
But that's not true, Morkt. It's not that it isn't supposed to happen - it just isn't supposed to be likely. And we don't know that it is - we can't draw conclusions about probablity without a much larger sample size.
Because you can't know anything at all just from anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes show that something can happen, not that it happens a lot or is likely to happen. We cannot have enough information to answer these questions.
Thats the point though - we havent been given anything at all. We will never have anything more than anecdotal evidence because anything I (or anybody else) can gather relies on being told the truth to start with. There is no way I could ever verify what these people tell me... its all suspect evidence and I know that.
My point is simple - no matter how unlikely one or two instances might be they "could" be possible given chance. 3, 4 and now 5 is not chance. That simply isnt chance. Chance doesnt work like that. It isn't an "artifact"... artifacts don't show discernible patterns. And when we can go no further looking into something the devs surely must.
I remain deeply concerned about the entire affair, both form the bottom line potential bugs to the stunning silence, reticence and lack of communication from CCP HQ. We all "Know" nothing. BUt when the people who should know it all are clammed up and hiding what are we supposed to think then?
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 01:45:00 -
[23]
Quote:
I won 10MN AB II blueprint with 4,000 points in Rocket Science.... it surely looks ok to me... This is with 2 characters and a total of 6 projects going.
Just FYI if it helps.
Not really Naal.
THe part of the lottery with "who wins waht" int erms of RPs doesn't seem borken to me. Its just this issue of repeat winners within very short periods of time (two weeks or so) for the rarest of all and most sought after BPs (Elite Frigates) that smells wrong.
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Morkt Drakt
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Posted - 2004.03.26 15:49:00 -
[24]
Quote:
Another one for you Morkt,
A member of my corp got one of the energised platings a couple of weeks ago, and got another yesterday. same agent, same research skill.
Thats not necessarily a problem Dan.
Lots of people WILL get repeat wins via the same agent, as LOTS of people only have one agent.
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